Tuesday, March 27, 2012

This chart says it all: The sex offender registry has had no useful impact!

This week the New York State Alliance of Sex Offender Service Providers is providing training at several venues across the state on the subject "Effectiveness of New York State Sex Offender Management: Are We Making Communities Safer?" The training is being conducted by Jeffrey Sandler, who has a PhD in Criminal Justice from University at Albany. The Power Point presentation which will be used at this training is available online.

This chart, RSO (Registerable Sex Offense) Arrest Counts, from the presentation says it all. It depicts every sex offense arrest in New York State for 21 years (10 years before the enactment of the sex offender registration law to 11 years afterward). The vertical line separates the before and after periods. The green line at the bottom shows arrests for those who had previously been convicted of a sex offense. The chart dramatically illustrates that 96% of those arrested for sex crimes in New York State have no prior convictions for sex crimes and thus are not listed on any registry. It also dramatically illustrates that the registry has had no impact on recidivism. Contrary to popular opinion, sex offender recidivism was low before the registry and low afterwards.

(Note that "RSO" here does not mean "registered sex offender" but "registerable sex offense.") (Click the image to enlarge)

● Two hundred and fifty-two months (21 years) of statewide arrest data from 1986 [10 years before SORA] to 2006 [11 years afterward]

● Included every sexual offense arrest [and therefore every sex offender arrested] during that time
– Over 170,000 sexual offenses
– Over 160,000 different sex offenders

Data is taken from Does a Watched Pot Boil? A Time-Series Analysis of New York State’s Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law, Jeffrey C. Sandler, Naomi J. Freeman, Kelly M. Socia, Psychology, Public Policy, and Law (2008), 14, 284-302


kiokwus said...

Just yet another example of proof that what sex offender activists have been saying for years. Time, money, manpower, cluttered court systems, over crowding in prisons and jails,no viable benefit from thousands of useless, feel-good, knee-jerk legislation designed to do nothing more than keep unscrupulous political morons in office by riding the backs of known offenders, maintaining the fear factor and hysterical atmosphere that all registered sex offenders hide under every rock, blade of grass, behind bushes and trees, just waiting to snatch your child to rape and murder them. Unfortunately, truth like this report and chart will be hidden from the public as it goes against the money machine we call the court system, legal system, authoritative IE, police and such systems, the counseling services that monopolize the courts for "clients". The list goes on. When will America wake up and see the truth that is in front of their very faces?

ShellyStow said...

This should put to rest once and for all whether or not the registry has any redeeming value. Unfortunately, those who refuse to see the truth will still not, or at least will pretend to still not.

Anonymous said...

That is so true Shelly. So true

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Think about it..... What happens when sex offenders are put on a reservation? for Then you get a group of individuals who cam apply for sovorienty and be able to govern themselves. And how can you pull a scarlet letter on an person and not step on their rights? It cant work

Anonymous said...

Didn't Nazi Germany Classify The Jewish Nationality then Give Them Levels Of Usefulness?

Anonymous said...


"Some evidence of an increase to public safety with registration, but only under specific circumstances"


"Evidence shows a likely increase to public safety"


Anonymous said...

I want drunk drivers who KILL on a list so I wont get killed or my child wont get killed!

Anonymous said...

I want drunk drivers on national news. They kill ppl.

Anonymous said...

Speak for yourself.My neighbors are familiar with the those listed in the neighborhood. Our Children have been shown their faces, where they live and have been taught not to go anywhere near them. To make such a stupid statement is rediculous. I dont even grasp how you can calculate the math on "useful impact" Do you just think the terminology sounds good?

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Anonymous said...

Lets put to rest the "useful impact" of the registry. Our neighborhood had a guy knocking on doors looking for yard work, odd jobs etc. The neighbors got together and one recognized this person as being on the registry and so informed the rest of us. Those who were informed declined to hire him. One family was not so lucky. Fast forward 6 months and the registrant was rearrested for groping the families 7 year old son while doing "odd jobs" at the home. So to spout off the registry has no impact is just not true.

Tod said...

Anonymous (one of them, anyway) told the story of the guy doing odd jobs and molesting a child as reasons for continuing the registry.

Let me remind you that most people on the registry do not go door to door looking for children to molest. In fact you may be surprised to consider the fact that practically everyone on the registry is today a law abiding citizen. What logic do you have for continuing to persecute those people based on what some sick individual in your neighborhood did?

Reserve the registry for ONLY those who commit violent predatory crimes (sexual or otherwise) and who have shown a propensity to reoffend. Until then, any law that applies wholesale to EVERYONE on the list (including children as young as ten years old) is not only heartless and inhumane, it's unconstitutional.

Anonymous said...

Offenders who have gone thru "successful" treatment programs disagree with your findings. The majority feel the registry can and is a deterrant for repeat offenses. Successful graduates from these programs state that they "know" their behavor is scrutinized, they KNOW they are given a second chance EVERYDAY to Not disappoint friends and family and the Registry helps them achieve that. Successful registrants also realize and understand their "victims" have a right to know. These comments/opinions didnt come from "violent" offenders, they came from offenders whose crimes ran thru a myriad of spectrums across the board. This blog seems to scream out that not many offenders went thru any meaningful successfull treatment.

Anonymous said...

The study "rsorp.pdf" gets thrown around a lot as evidence regarding the dangerousness of sex offenders.

Let's take a look at one key paragraph of the study:

"Rearrest for a new sex crime Compared to non-sex offenders released from State prisons, released sex offenders were 4 times more likely to be rearrested for a sex crime. Within the first 3 years following their release from prison in 1994, 5.3% (517 of the 9,691) of released sex offenders were rearrested for a sex crime. The rate for the 262,420 released non-sex offenders was lower, 1.3% (3,328 of 262,420)."

Time and time again supporters of tougher sex offense laws use the above to demonstrate just how dangerous sex offenders are - "four times more likely".

But if you set aside the percentages and look at the number of crimes you will see that the sex offenders were rearrested for sex offenses 517 times and non sex offending felons 3,328 times.

So if you are concerned about protecting your child from the person who may be trying to hurt them which group would you think you need to focus on?

The group charged with 517 sex crimes or 3,328 sex crimes?

Oh, and this is just known felons... Do you know how many sex crimes were reported for the 15 states involved in the study for the four years of the study?


So... here are a few statistics for you (and we are going to treat arrests and convictions the same for this):
3,328 + 517 = 3845 <- sex crimes for ALL felons.
517 / 3845 = 13% <- percentage the sex offenders are responsible for.
517 / 237,286 = 0.21% <- percentage of sex crimes the sex offenders are responsible for.

That's right, if you locked up ALL sex offenders for life the sex crime rate would be reduced by a whopping 0.21%!!!

So totally worth the cost, right?

If you feel these laws keep your children safe you need serious help!

P.S. Someone is going to claim I pulled the number of sex crimes out of thin air. I didn't anymore than the government does.
Go to http://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/Crime.cfm and select the 15 states of the study, violent crimes and the four years of the study. Then export to csv open in your favorite spreadsheet and run the numbers.

Don't trust me, you don't know me, do it yourself and confirm for yourself that I am telling the truth.

Kimberly Scott said...

My son has to be a registered sex offender cause he was set up by the FBI out west. The FBI set up a fake craiglist ad they sent him a pic of a woman who looked to be 30 yrs old. He asked to meet in a public place and when he got there the FBI arrested him. He is looking at 5years in fed prison. And he didnt even do anything..


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Joe DuBois said...

It HAS begun and now the registry MUST GO!
Here is you official chance to take your stand and take it down! 

The WAR Admin Team AND our Class Action Core Team are proud to announce that we will begin work this week on two law suits to be filed at the federal level this fall. That’s right – two of them!

The first is on behalf of registered sex offenders and the second on behalf of families and friends of registered sex offenders.

The challenges will be against SORNA and the impact to the registrant families, which has been verified and documented by researchers. Also, the public impact will be defined in an upcoming survey being developed with the assistance of Professor Crysanthi Leon of the University of Delaware.

Even though these laws were mandated at the Congressional level then enacted to varying degrees by the state legislatures, we will be asking the court to rule on “the law” thus removing the manner in which legislators have purported to keep children safe – punitive punishment for registrants and families. It is time to take the issue out of the state legislators hands and campaigns and place it firmly in front of the supreme courts.

The concept of filing based on the collateral damage experienced by those who seek to provide positive support at re-entry and thereafter will gather steam and provide a more assertive approach than is being used today.

Please consider this your invitation to visit our website where you will instantly see the announcement as well as the opportunity for participation. We have also listed some Frequently Asked Questions to help answer as many immediate questions as possible.


Join the ‘Movers and Shakers’ in these law suits.